The following is a story about the effects of influence, persuasion, and bias on decision making. The true story is told to provide an example of the way the conscious mind can be bypassed in the decision making process using any number of tools.
Because this is a story, your rational radar should already be sending you warning signs. Story is one of the most effective methods of communication. It's an ancient form of communication wired into our social fabric. Since the dawn of human language, stories have communicated laws, traditions, and processes, allowing them to be transferred between people and groups.
A well told story makes the subject both relatable, and emotionally connected, which can make it more persuasive. Because of this effect, it's wise to be skeptical when approaching a story. It may simply be entertaining, it may also be making an argument cloaked in a story form to hide the argument from your conscious. Engage your logic radar and read on.
Years ago, I was 9-months into my first role at a tech startup. It had been a rough 9-months. We generally worked 10+ hours in the office 6 days a week. I had been burning out for some time. The more I got done, the more work I had to do. This was not due to picking up slack, we had a great team, it was the pace of execution we were driving, keeping us all that busy.
One morning I made the very irrational decision to resign. I can objectively say the decision was not rational, I even knew it at the time. For 9-months I'd been taking home a salary about 6-figures below what I could earn annually in a non-startup role. The lower salary was due to the startup equity I had the potential to earn.
This was not a typical startup. It was a 'spin out' from a larger company. All of the funding required to execute was secure, the timeline was set, and the company's purchase price on the date of execution was already determined. This means that I knew exactly how much I'd earn, if I stayed, and we executed. No dilution, etc. to worry about.
At 9-months in, I was 3-months from vesting 50% of my equity, to the tune of 7-figures. If I left now, that equity would be abandoned. I would walk away simply having made less money for lots more work over 9-months. I turned in my resignation anyway.
This was not because I had money to burn, I'd been temporarily homeless for my first month with the team. I secretly lived in my car in the parking lot, because I didn't have the savings for first and last month rent, plus deposit on an apartment. I wasn't much better off at this point.
I knew the decision was financially unsound, but I choose my sanity, over my potential earnings. With no job to go to, I handed my resignation to my boss. He tried to talk me out of it to no avail. He then told me I'd have to speak with his boss, our SVP. I politely declined, and went back to work.
30-minutes later I was told the SVP was waiting for me in a small conference room. She was not a woman you said no to. She was a brilliant leader, with a pedigree of driving innovation. She was also a relentless execution machine, who did not take no for an answer.
Tail between my legs, I joined her nervously in the conference room. At this time, she and I had built minimal rapport, but I knew her to be persuasive and demanding. My only goal was not burning a bridge while getting myself back out of that conference room. I walked in expecting the precision execution machine I'd observed her to be.
Instead, I was greeted with a version of her I hadn't seen. An almost motherly mentor, warm, inviting, supportive. Over the next 30-minutes she talked, asked questions, and diagramed money, earnings, where we were going, what we would achieve, etc. on a white board.
This is one of those experiences I can remember in 4K detail. I describe it as the scene from 1977's 'Star Wars' where Obi-Wan tells a group of Storm Troopers "These aren't the droids you're looking for" while carefully moving his hand, implying a use of the 'Force'.
In the movie, we view this scene from the narrators perspective, a kind of all knowing 3rd party. In the actual moment, I had that perspective, as well as my typical first-person perspective.
From the narrators perspective I watched her use the Jedi mind trick on me, changing my thinking against my will. From the first person perspective I felt myself compelled to shift my views to her perspective. In the moment, I actually got to watch from both perspectives. I saw the rube being tricked, while being the rube being tricked. My conscious brain knew I was being manipulated, but the manipulation worked anyway (manipulated is used here without positive or negative connotation, as a simple statement of what occurred.)
After 30-minutes I withdrew my resignation with a smile, excited to continue doing what this team set out to do. She had not given me more money, more title, more help, or less work. She had simply forced my mindset to change from one of frustration, to one of excitement for the various opportunities I was being given.
This was one of many events that started my passion for understanding how the brain works, how it can be influenced, and what causes its biases.
This is the tendency to seek and absorb information that confirms existing beliefs. Basically, we're inclined to search for, and believe that which confirms our existing belief. This is more dangerous in our modern algorithm driven world, which feeds you what you'll click on.
It's been said that 'hindsight is 20/20', meaning our vision is 'perfect' looking back. This concept leads to the hindsight bias in which we tend to see past events, even random events, as more predictable than they are. "I knew it all along" is a good indicator of this bias.
A tendency for memories to be heavily weighted by things which happen after the event in question. Memory has been found to be extremely malleable based on this bias. This is one reason 'eye witness' accounts or testimony, are always questionable. It would be safe to assume the story above was influenced by this bias.
One tends to be overinfluenced by the first piece of information that we hear on a subject. For example, if you were raised with the notion that 'capitalism' or 'socialism' = good, you will be anchored (more inclined) to believe that.
A tendency to attribute one's actions to external factors, and others actions to internal factors. Think, "I had to do it, they chose to do it." An indicator of this is one attributing poor personal performance to an outside factor like lack of sleep.
A tendency for out initial impression of a person to influence our overall thinking of them. This is also referred to as 'physical attractiveness stereotype', which is based on an association between beautiful and good.
This is the tendency to estimate the probability of an event based on the number of examples we can recall. This is a short cut the brain uses for complex predictions. It exists to save time, but it is heavily fallible, especially on complex topics.
One tends to have a desire to keep things as they are. This equates to a bias towards what is, even if what is does not equate to better or best.
A tendency to give one's self credit for success, but place blame for failures on outside causes. You can think of this as 'the CEO Effect', what worked was my brilliance, what failed was external macro or micro influences.
One tends to over estimate how much people agree with their beliefs, attitude, values, and behavior. One can always safely assume their assumption of agreement exceeds the data provided by reality.
The tendency of a person to react differently to a choice based on the way said choice is framed. For example, patients are more likely to opt for a surgery framed as having a 90% success rate, versus the same surgery framed as having a 10% mortality rate. The math has not changed, but the decision will tend to.
A tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive things occurring, and underestimate the probability of negative things happening. Anyone who plays the lottery is experiencing this at some level.
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